Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 8.603394 9.528345 10.551833 11.776048 13.210739 14.851545 16.888536
2025-04-20 7.904521 9.229031 10.811990 12.874627 15.539514 18.937155 23.718825
2025-04-27 7.227456 8.728911 10.615998 13.222523 16.832466 21.826258 29.595696
2025-05-04 6.460606 7.983195 9.963986 12.814613 16.967358 23.077570 33.372567
2025-05-11 6.098643 7.704429 9.865116 13.105067 18.076883 25.888530 40.272227
2025-05-18 5.665786 7.277915 9.503556 12.949148 18.460051 27.598724 45.760358
2025-05-25 5.306882 6.916611 9.189621 12.810294 18.824051 29.313971 51.773419
2025-06-01 5.025139 6.638031 8.963898 12.770094 19.326675 31.351454 59.155121
2025-06-08 4.714712 6.293024 8.606561 12.473988 19.333701 32.443443 64.811907
2025-06-15 4.507175 6.083530 8.435393 12.459421 19.832623 34.599451 73.998505
2025-06-22 4.214727 5.728057 8.010733 11.973641 19.386088 34.688536 77.693424
2025-06-29 3.922581 5.357401 7.538783 11.366026 18.633570 33.978362 78.839727
2025-07-06 3.685160 5.066774 7.189795 10.968611 18.294694 34.256361 83.634278
2025-07-13 3.743499 5.235873 7.593277 11.950707 20.881286 42.099895 119.543702
2025-07-20 3.667960 5.187520 7.631597 12.264110 22.124952 47.036694 150.221326
2025-07-27 3.479171 4.946828 7.328069 11.897043 21.806488 47.631370 162.060640
2025-08-03 3.411042 4.897524 7.348224 12.158454 22.965377 52.867243 204.827618
2025-08-10 3.283240 4.743263 7.174989 12.018157 23.152266 55.220250 234.908059
2025-08-17 3.167015 4.602438 7.016642 11.893154 23.358700 57.729182 271.140093
2025-08-24 3.072006 4.492446 6.906446 11.856954 23.784514 61.166283 323.131231
2025-08-31 2.949980 4.331448 6.695046 11.590157 23.575196 62.272926 357.677947
2025-09-07 2.871116 4.240411 6.606205 11.577025 24.040116 66.131038 434.504996
2025-09-14 2.738945 4.052955 6.330517 11.138728 23.289616 64.952797 447.656930